While it is true that the COVID-19 pandemic has presented the world with unexpected environmental benefits such as less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a result of the closure of numerous industries and lessening the usage of transportation in compliance with social distancing mechanisms, the question remains: Will these benefits last?

The answer is a resounding no.

One study found that the temporary decrease of GHG emissions has little impact on the overall effects of greenhouse gases accumulated over the years.[1] The study points out that GHG emissions will likely shoot up once countries revive their economies at full capacity. Lasting effects can only be achieved with long-term structural change, which is why international negotiations on climate change policy and action play a significant role in the decrease of GHG emissions.

What is happening with the climate change negotiations?

*From https://unfccc.int/news/cop26-postponed*

Due to COVID-19, the 26th Conference of Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the biggest international climate conference that takes place annually, which was scheduled to be held in Glasgow, Scotland in November 2020 has been postponed to 2021. COP 26 was set to review the various commitments set by different countries during COP 21 in 2015. COP 21 has been considered a landmark for climate change policy as it produced the Paris Agreement, which requires countries around the world to make commitments to curb GHG emissions in order to limit rising global temperatures to 1.5°C or well below 2°C.

In an interview with CNBC, Richard Dixon, director of Friends of the Earth Scotland, said that postponement of the negotiations could cause delays to action regarding emission reductions, such as in providing climate finance to developing countries.[2] With the effects of rising temperatures arriving at full force, this could spell danger for numerous states and islands most vulnerable to climate change.

Islands around the world are sinking

*Sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimeters (that’s the height of bodybuilder and former California governor Arnold Schwarzenegger!)*

A study published in the Environmental Research Letters shows that by the end of the century, sea levels could rise by a maximum of 190 centimeters. Found to be most affected are small-island nations and countries with low-lying coastal communities such as Bangladesh and (yes, you guessed it) the Philippines.[3] Scientific evidence has already shown that five reef islands located in the Solomon Islands have been completely submerged due to rising sea levels.[4]

Small island states in the Pacific including the Solomon Islands have been very vocal in the climate change negotiations. This is not surprising considering that they only contribute an estimated 0.03 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions[5] yet are some of the most vulnerable countries to the effects of climate change.

*WorldFish Lilisiana village, Solomon Islands by Wade Fairley via Flickr Creative Commons*

To illustrate, the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) has been especially active in advocating for a legally binding treaty that sets a temperature target below 1.5°C.[6] They also fought for Loss and Damage to be reflected in the Paris Agreement, which is a mechanism for accountability for the manifestation of impacts associated with climate change, whether it be actual or potential.[7] In addition, they spearheaded the ratification of the Paris Agreement serving as a driving force for other countries, especially the major emitters, to ratify these treaties.[8] This goes to show just how disproportionate the effects of climate change are, as the lightest polluters bear the brunt of its most dire consequences. Studies suggest that if the current trend of GHG emissions continues to persist, thousands of low-lying communities may become uninhabitable within the next couple of decades.[9]

What about the Philippines?

*Studies found that a large portion of the Philippines’ capital city of Manila will be submerged in the near future due to rising sea levels.*

A study conducted in 2015 by the University of the Philippines states that sea levels in the Philippines will rise between 7.6 and 10.2 centimeters per decade (about the size of a pack of Skyflakes!). Estimates show that 0.6% of the Philippines’ total area is projected to go underwater in the course of potentially displacing 8.6 million Filipinos if current trends continue. Areas such as low-lying coastal and island communities are considered to be the most vulnerable.[10]

Current estimates by Climate Central suggest that parts of the following cities and provinces will be below sea level in as few as 30 years:[11]

6. Roxas

7. Iloilo

8. Cotabato

9. Surigao

10. Butuan

1. Manila

2. Malabon

3. Bulacan

4. Valenzuela

5. Pasay

What now?

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visits the island nation of Tuvalu.Christopher Gregory for TIME — *UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visits the island nation of Tuvalu.*
*Christopher Gregory for TIME*

Putting climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts on hold is a luxury that we simply cannot afford in light of the urgency of the situation. Time is something we desperately need in order to plan against the inevitable effects of climate change. Putting a halt to climate change negotiations could have some serious consequences for these islands and their populations.

And while it is true that the climate negotiations have taken the backseat due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this should not be enough reason for countries to renege on their obligations to decrease GHG emissions. While many have not seen the full extent of the effects of climate change due to its disproportionate impacts around the globe, small island states such as Tuvalu, the Maldives and the Kiribati Islands are already fighting for their citizens’ right to retain their homes, their way of life, and even human lives.